Analysis / Federal Election
Labor’s 2025 victory in Wills is one for the ages
In 2025, the Greens came closer than ever to winning Wills, but once again they fell short. Mark Phillips looks back at a memorable election campaign
Saturday, May 10, 2025
PETER Khalil could be excused for a moment of hubris after election counting put him in an unassailable position to win the seat of Wills for a fourth time.
In the face of the strongest and best-resourced challenge the Greens have ever mounted, Khalil retained the seat to be part of the second Albanese government – although it is somewhat ironic that he has triumphed in one of the most progressive electorates in Australia partly due to preferences from right wing parties, including the Liberals.
Although counting is not finished, Khalil has a lead after preferences of almost 4000 votes, prompting Greens’ challenger Samantha Ratnam to phone him on Thursday afternoon to concede defeat.
The result in Wills is instructive for both Labor and the Greens.
Many pundits predicted 2025 was going to be the year when the Greens finally delivered on their promises in Wills. They chose a high-profile candidate in Samantha Ratnam and everything seemed to be going their way, including a favourable redistribution.
They were hoping to ride a wave of resentment over housing, high living costs and the war in Gaza. After nine years as local MP, incumbency was looking more like a curse than an advantage for Khalil.
Instead, the wave appears to have crashed yet again at Bell Street.
The Greens have had a clean sweep of all 12 booths in their Brunswick heartland, winning some with as much as 59% of the primary vote. But outside the Brunswick bubble elsewhere in the electorate, it is a different story.
Taking at random some booths outside Brunswick, Khalil won 58.1% to Ratnam’s 41.9% at Coburg West Primary School; at Pascoe Vale Neighbourhood Facility it was 66% to 34%; and at Glenroy Oak Park Baptist Church, 71.9% to 28.1%.
To be fair, Ratnam also won or effectively tied with Labor at a number of northern booths, including in other parts of Glenroy, Fawkner, Coburg and Pascoe Vale.
But the reality is that even with an overall two-candidate swing of 7% in their favour, the Greens short. A stronger than anticipated Labor vote combined with those aforementioned Liberal and One Nation preferences came to Khalil’s rescue.
Peter Khalil
(Labor)
52.2%
Samantha Ratnam
(Greens)
47.8%
Based on 82.3% of votes counted by 7pm on May 12. Source: Australian Electoral Commission
The reasons for Labor’s win in Wills will be analysed for weeks and months to come, but in short it appears that the appetite for change wasn’t as strong as the Greens had thought. When push came to shove, enough voters opted to stick with Labor than take a chance with the Greens.
It also appears that the much-vaunted impact of the 10% of the electorate who are Muslim was not as great as anticipated.
In many ways, Khalil’s win mimics that of his boss, Anthony Albanese.
Taking his cue from a Labor Prime Minister who – much to the frustration of those on the progressive side – describes himself as a reformer, not a revolutionary, Khalil is a no-frills MP who projects as a safe pair of hands.
Even when he seemed to be a man under siege, Khalil maintained a calm, business-like demeanour.
Since Labor won government in 2022, he has worked assiduously to deliver for his electorate, often in ways that go under the radar. It may be dull, but in an era of uncertainty and turmoil, perhaps that is what voters wanted.
It seems that many voters may have looked at Ratnam as the shiny sports car in the showroom before deciding they couldn’t afford it and sticking with their reliable station wagon in the driveway instead.
Khalil has also weathered what was a nasty campaign, primarily due to the war in Gaza, which has seen him attacked with personal slurs and disinformation. His office has had to close numerous times over the past 12 months because of vandalism.
The Albanese factor cannot be discounted either. Some of the strong national swing towards Labor, due in no small part to personal approval of Albanese himself, had to filter through to even this most progressive of seats.
La Trobe University Emeritus Professor Dennis Altman said that even though there was a small swing against Khalil, the fact it wasn’t enough to lose his seat is a reflection of the strength of support for Labor across the nation.
“While Samantha Ratnam is very high profile, Peter Khalil has been a very active member and put a lot of energy into building links with very diverse communities in the northern part of the electorate,” he said early last week.
“That’s reflected by once you get north of Bell Stret, it’s solidly Labor.
“I think Peter Khalil has actually built his brand quite well and if the trend continues, given the redistribution and the demographic shifts he was facing, he should be very pleased about the result.”
Khalil has been humble in victory, perhaps in recognition that this was a great escape.
For the Greens, 2025 is a case of so close, yet so far.
They may never have a better chance in Wills than in 2025, when Labor faced a perfect storm. Along with a favourable environment, they gained a host of endorsements from across the political spectrum, including Muslim Votes Matter. And they outgunned Labor in direct contact with voters.
But did their stance on Gaza alienate more voters in Wills than it won? Do some voters view them as too extreme on trans rights or their support for the discredited leadership of the CFMEU?
And did voters decide that – contrary to the rhetoric coming out of the Greens – the best way of ensuring Peter Dutton did not get the keys to the Lodge was by voting for Khalil, not Ratnam?
One well-placed observer with decades of experience in local politics said the Greens’ campaign had lacked authenticity and unlike the message from Khalil, seemed to be a cut and paste from national sloganeering rather than directed at a local audience.
Ultimately, some of the voters the Greens were hoping to attract decided they would rather have a local MP who was a voice with influence inside the government, not shouting from the outside.
Samantha Ratnam took a huge personal gamble to run for the seat, which meant resigning from the position of Greens leader in the Victorian Parliament.
Too her credit, she has turned Wills into a genuine marginal seat, laying a base camp for her party to mount another challenge in three years’ time when the margin will be less than 2%.
The loss in Wills is the first setback in what has been a stellar career since she first entered politics on Moreland Council more than a decade ago. But she is too talented not to bounce back from this.
In a defiant concession message, Ratnam suggested her political career is far from over.
She will just have to bide her time until 2028, when the Senate term of former Green Lydia Thorpe expires. Or she could run again in Wills and hope that it is third time lucky.
But for now, Peter Khalil has every reason to feel pleased with himself.
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